McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS64 KTSA 080543
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

  - Scattered storms late this afternoon and evening. Low
    potential for a few strong to severe storms.

  - Spotty shower and storm chances continue Thursday and Friday
    before clearing out Friday night.

  - Pleasant weekend with low chance of showers/storms across
    mainly western Arkansas Monday. Warming trend next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 812 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

A few bands of showers and thunderstorms continue to move through
northeast OK and portions of northwest AR. These are being driven
by the upper level low and associated cold air aloft along with
sufficient wind shear. These storms are capable of heavy rain,
isolated hail up to 1" in diameter, and gusty winds to 40-50 mph.
However, with the loss of daytime heating the remaining storms
should weaken. Rain chances will then drop to 10-30% overnight
with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

Light precipitation will remain possible Thursday morning, with
additional scattered showers and storms developing again Thursday
afternoon, mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

The upper low will drift slowly south and southwest Friday and
Saturday, with shower and storm chances shifting south as well.
The weekend will be pleasant across our forecast area with the
upper low far enough south to prohibit showers and storms in our
area. The upper low will lift northeast Monday, which may bring
low chances of showers and storms back to mainly northwest
Arkansas Monday.

A warming trend will develop next week, with high temperatures
warming well into the 80s by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025

VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR/IFR, perhaps a
mixture of IFR/LIFR at the AR TAF sites, overnight tonight/early
this morning. Guidance has been trending at fog developing a few
hours before sunrise at MLC, FYV, XNA, and ROG. Latest obs show
patchy off/on fog has already developed at FYV early this morning.
The fog should erode by mid-morning, an hour or so after sunrise.
Ceilings/vsbys should improve to VFR/MVFR late in the morning or
early in the afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may
develop again across northeast OK and northwest AR in the
afternoon. Maintained PROB30 groups at the TAF sites with the best
probabilities of this occurring. Light winds early this morning
will turn northerly/northwesterly by mid-late morning, remaining
at or below 10 knots through the rest of the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  55  74  49 /  30  10  10   0
FSM   75  56  75  52 /  20  10  30   0
MLC   73  55  74  50 /  10  10  30   0
BVO   73  50  74  45 /  30  10  10   0
FYV   71  51  72  45 /  50  20  30   0
BYV   71  53  71  46 /  60  20  30   0
MKO   72  54  74  49 /  30  10  30   0
MIO   71  52  72  46 /  50  20  10   0
F10   72  54  74  50 /  20  10  20   0
HHW   74  56  74  54 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67